- Expert View
- Market Trends
- Performance by Property Type
- Performance by Region
- Average House Price by Region
Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index for Q3 2014
A market best reviewed in segments
Head of Research
Bank of Ireland
Our latest review of the local residential market continues to make positive reading with transactions remaining at the more normalised levels reported in Q2 while average prices have increased on both the quarterly and annual comparisons. While the short-term performance has been more variable, it is encouraging to report that all property types and all eleven regions have seen some rise in average price relative to Q3 2013, all of which suggests a market that has some forward momentum.
Head of Economics & Research
Bank of Ireland Northern Ireland
General Market Trends
This survey of the Northern Ireland housing market provides further evidence of the turn-around in sentiment and the depth of recovery. Building upon the strong second quarter performance, the statistics presented in this report emphasise the growing robustness of the local housing market with a further significant rate of price increase over the year and transaction levels being sustained at a high level. In this respect, the housing market is paralleling improvements in the Northern Ireland economy, though the latter is not smooth and political uncertainties may start to dampen expectations of growth. Also to sound a note of caution, the rate of house price increase slowed down during the third quarter, possibly reflecting the stricter criteria for mortgage lending.
In terms of price performance, the overall average price for the third quarter of 2014 is £141,173, an appreciable increase on the average price for the third quarter of 2013 (£129,777). In simple percentage terms this represents an 8.8% rise over the year, though, when allowance is made for variation in the sample mix between the two surveys the weighted rate of annual increase is lower at 5.2% indicating that some of the apparent growth is due to property quality/type differences. Over the quarter, the rate of price change has been less dramatic with a 1% increase in average sale price. Allowing for variation in sample mix, the weighted growth over the quarter has been a minimal (0.3%) suggesting a consolidation of
Performance by Property Type
Annual % change and average price
|Market Sector||Annual Change||Average Price Quarter 3 2014|
Performance by Region
At the regional level, trends are again highly variable. For certain regions, prices and variability of price trends are a function of the previous constrained evidence base.
|Location||Average Price Quarter 2|
|Northern Ireland - All||£141,173|
Reflecting the overall trend apparent at the Northern Ireland level, the Belfast market has again performed strongly during the third quarter of 2014 with significant increases in average sale price. The overall average price (£154,326) is up by 9% over the year, and by 6% compared to the second quarter, making Belfast one of the best performing markets. These trends are also apparent across the different sectors. Annually all property types, except for detached bungalows, show price growth with terraced/townhouses (£95,631) up by 10.6%, semi-detached houses (£152,651) by 7.6%, detached houses (£286,339) by 4.3% and apartments (£103,451) by 4.1%.
|Belfast - All||£154,326|
|Belfast Metropolitan Area
Within the commuter zone of the Belfast Metropolitan Area, the three local markets continue to display contrasting positions.
For North Down, the overall average price (£182,164) is up 17% over the year, building upon the strong performance in the second quarter.
For Lisburn, the overall average price (£185,777) is also substantially higher over the year by 7.2%.
In East Antrim, the overall average price (£128,695) has increased by 21.6% over the year, building upon the recovery in the market apparent in the second quarter. In this context, several property types show sharp price gains over the year with the average price of detached houses (£210,114) up by 17.4% over the year.
North and North West
For Antrim/Ballymena the overall average price (£117,415) is up over the year by 4.1%.
The Coleraine/Limavady/North Coast market has seen another strong performance with the overall average price (£140,562) up by 22.3% over the year reinforcing the picture in the previous survey.
In the Derry/Strabane market, the overall average price (£112,197) has again increased with a 5.5% rate of growth over the year and a higher quarterl increase of 8.6%.
|L'derry / Strabane||£112,197|
|Antrim / Ballymena||£117,415|
|Coleraine / Limavady / N. Coast||£140,562|
In Mid Ulster, the average price (£112,593) is up very slightly over the year by 1% and virtually unchanged over the quarter suggesting a consolidation of price levels following the increase apparent in the second quarter of the year.
The Enniskillen/Fermanagh/South Tyrone market for this quarter has an average price of £128,717 representing both an annual and quarterly rate of price increase of 4.6%.
|Enniskillen / Fermanagh / S. Tyrone||£128,717|
For Craigavon/Armagh, the overall average price (£100,566) has increased, up by 5% over the year and by 5.7% for the quarter suggesting a stronger performance over the third quarter of the year.
In Mid & South Down a very strong picture was apparent in the previous survey, however the current position suggests some falling off in average prices with the overall average sale price (£130,817) down by 7.1% over the quarter and only slightly up over the year (0.8%).
|Mid & South Down||£130,817|
|Craigavon / Armagh||£100,566|
Average House Price by Region
The long-term house price index is calculated relative to price levels for each property type at the base quarter for the survey, the final quarter of 1984. The overall index at 501.86 has risen slightly for this survey reflecting the respective annual and quarterly changes in average prices across the property types.
The pattern of the house price index since its rapid fall during 2008-2010 has been one of uneven performance though generally trending downwards. This survey suggests that the recent upward trajectory is continuing.